The COVID-19 pandemic was brutal to equity investors. In February and March of 2020, the S&P 500 index suffered a nearly 34% drop in just 23 trading days, after reaching its peak in mid-February. In March, the net flow out of U.S. equity funds and into money market funds reached record amounts, dwarfing the outflows during the 2008–2009 financial crisis or the 2001–2002 market downturn.

Posted In:


Despite the assertions of many experts that trying to time the market is futile, StoneTurn’s skilled economists Drs. Atanu Saha and Yong Xu propose a simple, hindsight-free, rule-based method of entry and exit into the stock market, with the goal of improving returns by averting large losses.

Based on nearly a century’s worth of data, the authors demonstrate that a market timing strategy delivers robust and statistically significant outperformance over the benchmark S&P 500 total return index.

Read the full paper in the Journal Of Investment Management.

About the Authors

Atanu Saha-HS

Atanu Saha

Atanu Saha, a Partner with StoneTurn, has over 25 years of experience in the application of economics and finance to complex business issues. He has served as an expert witness […]

Read Bio
StoneTurn

Yong Xu

Dr. Yong Xu, a Managing Director with StoneTurn, brings over 20 years of experience in the application of economics, finance, and statistics to complex business issues. He has provided expert […]

Read Bio